Executive Summary

The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (CCCS), a part of the Communications Security Establishment (CSE), has published its "Ransomware Threat Outlook 2025 to 2027." The report warns Canadian organizations of a significant and rapidly evolving ransomware threat. A key finding is the increasing adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) by cybercriminals to enhance their operations. AI is being used to create more effective phishing campaigns, identify vulnerabilities, and automate aspects of attacks, making them more sophisticated and difficult to defend against. The report also underscores the prevalence of multi-extortion tactics, where data is both encrypted and stolen for additional leverage. The CCCS assesses that ransomware will remain a primary threat to Canada for the foreseeable future.

Threat Overview

The report outlines several key trends shaping the ransomware landscape in Canada:

• AI as an Enabler: Criminals are using AI tools to lower the barrier to entry and increase the effectiveness of their attacks. This includes using large language models (LLMs) to generate convincing, grammatically correct phishing emails in multiple languages, and using AI for faster reconnaissance and vulnerability discovery.
• Multi-Extortion Dominance: The standard ransomware model has evolved. Attackers are no longer just encrypting data; they are consistently exfiltrating it first. This 'multi-extortion' approach involves four potential threats: 1) data encryption, 2) threatening to leak stolen data, 3) launching DDoS attacks, and 4) directly harassing customers or stakeholders.
• Increasing Incident Rate: The number of known ransomware incidents in Canada has continued to rise between 2021 and 2024, affecting organizations of all sizes and across all sectors.

Impact Assessment

The evolving tactics described in the report increase the pressure on victim organizations and amplify the potential damage from an attack.

• Increased Likelihood of Payment: Multi-extortion tactics are designed to defeat traditional defenses like backups. Even if an organization can restore its systems from backups, the threat of a public data leak can still force them to pay the ransom to avoid reputational damage and regulatory fines.
• Higher Sophistication of Attacks: AI-generated phishing emails are harder for employees to spot, increasing the likelihood of an initial compromise.
• Broader Impact: The threat to leak data and harass customers expands the impact of a breach beyond the victim organization itself, affecting its entire ecosystem of clients, partners, and employees.

Detection & Response

The CCCS report emphasizes that while threats are becoming more advanced, foundational security practices are still the most effective defense.

• Behavioral Analysis: To counter AI-driven threats, defenders must move beyond signature-based detection. Use security tools that analyze behavior to spot anomalies, such as a user account suddenly accessing and compressing large amounts of data, which is indicative of pre-exfiltration staging. This is a form of D3FEND Resource Access Pattern Analysis.
• Data Exfiltration Monitoring: Deploy tools and configure alerts specifically to detect large or unusual outbound data transfers. This is a critical chokepoint to detect multi-extortion attacks before the data leaves the network.
• Incident Response Planning: Update incident response plans to specifically address multi-extortion scenarios. The plan must include legal, communications, and executive stakeholders to decide how to handle a data leak threat, not just a system outage.

Mitigation Recommendations

The CCCS stresses the importance of collaboration and robust cyber hygiene.

1. Implement Foundational Controls: Prioritize basic but critical security measures. This includes:
   • Patch Management: Regularly update all software and operating systems to fix known vulnerabilities (M1051 - Update Software).
   • Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA): Enforce MFA on all remote access points, administrative accounts, and critical applications (M1032 - Multi-factor Authentication).
   • User Training: Continuously train users to recognize and report phishing attempts (M1017 - User Training).
2. Develop and Test Backups: Maintain offline, encrypted, and regularly tested backups. While backups won't prevent a data leak, they are essential for restoring operations without paying a ransom for decryption keys.
3. Network Segmentation: Segment the network to prevent ransomware from spreading laterally from a compromised workstation to critical servers and data stores. This is a key principle of M1030 - Network Segmentation.
4. Collaboration: Engage with law enforcement and share threat information with bodies like the CCCS or other industry information sharing and analysis centers (ISACs).